Will there be a repeat of the 1983 crash?

Superdata Research Inc released a report warning of a looming market crash from an over-saturation of video game consoles on the market. The report showed that 79% of gamers already own consoles and each gamer owns an average of 2.6 consoles. You can get your hands on the paper here: click here.

On a happy side-note, I own nine: Atart 2600, NES, SNES, Sega Genesis, Sega Saturn, PS1, PS2, Xbox 360, and the Wii.

The report argues that despite there being more gamers than ever before, the 1983 market had exactly the same conditions as there are today. A lot of new gamers are gravitating towards the PC and mobile games rather than consoles, so the growth in the overall market is orientated away from the consoles.  If you include digital distribution growing in popularity (Steam, Origins, etc), there will be less incentive for this growing population of gamers  to switch to consoles.

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So, is Superdata Research right? Did the 1983 crash occur because of too many consoles? All the experts that I’m aware of would say no. The crash occurred because the market was flooded with terrible games, which drove the consumer away from consoles. It was one of the reasons why Nintendo started their Seal of Approval… to let their customers know that they wouldn’t have to worry about those horrible games

Nintendo-Seal-of-Quality

It is a little doubtful that owning consoles would make it unlikely to purchase other consoles. That certainly wasn’t true for me. I would assume it’s not true for most others. If there will be another crash, it will come from bad games rather than too many hardware options.

Although….

If there will be a crash like 1983’s, it would come from the mobile games rather than the console games. The major game developers for console games are focusing on AAA titles and trying to only release games that will sell well. The developers for mobile games tend to focus on free-to-play models. They also focus on games that are fairly cheap to purchase. It’s easy to flood the market with hundreds, if not thousands, of bad games.

There have been others who predicted different ways there could be another crash. The one that stood out to me was from Clevernoobs released a brilliant video arguing why another crash is possible.

But what do you think? Are we on the verge of another market crash?

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